Today, six years ago, the Bitcoin rate rose above 1,000 US dollars for the first time. Time to take a look back at the ups and downs of the share price development and ask when the next milestone could be reached.
Bitcoin 2013: Some readers will still remember this bull market. Be it because you made real profits for the first time, be it because you were annoyed about a missed investment: The year-end rally of 2013, in which the price increased tenfold within two months, was even more extreme than the many known bull market of 2017.
What the achievement of the milestone has in common with the 2017 bull market, however, is the dramatic slide. The all-time high reached soon thereafter was followed by a drawdown of over 80 per cent. Likewise, the dry spell, the disappointment that many feel with current prices, is not new. After 2013, the Bitcoin price remained below its all-time high for more than three years.
A look at Bitcoin’s share price performance
If we look at how the Bitcoin course developed over the next few years on November 28, it becomes clear that even the lean period after 2017 is nothing new. The first three anniversaries of a Bitcoin rate of over 1,000 US dollars were quite sad.
A first guess could therefore be that we will have to wait less for the next milestone again. If you play around with the numbers, a first assumption would be that between the 10,000-US dollar milestone and the 100,000-US dollar milestone there should be just under 600 days. That’s 2.38 times the zeint interval between the marks at $1,000 and $10,000.
Did the Bitcoin rate miss the US$100,000 opportunity?
The problem: The time is already past. Interestingly enough, the summer high of 2019 falls into this window, but we are still far away from 100,000 US dollars, as the Bitcoin investor will find frustrated.
But what about the upper barrier? Let’s not forget that several of the first milestones have been reached within a single bull market. Such a rally is currently not visible. Between USD 1,000 and USD 10,000, however, 1,463 days had to pass. Assuming this duration, an appropriate date for a Bitcoin rate of 100,000 US dollars would be at the end of November 2021.
Such a forecast coincides if one considers the halving that will take place next year with findings from the past: Immediately after a halving, the price does not have to rise dramatically immediately. The downward trend may have already been broken before, but real high-altitude flights can still be a long time coming.
Bitcoin investors should therefore have a long breath. We are not yet on a new flight to the moon. But the rocket is already under construction. With developments around the lighting network, the constant work on software like the Bitcoin Core Client and technical innovations like Taproot, Bitcoin’s value proposition will not only continue to be valid. Bitcoin is getting better and better regardless of the current price.